Posted by Both the House and Senate are moving forward with draft legislation to craft a National Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS or RES) that will dramatically increase the amount of generation produced from defined renewable technologies. The RPS will be incorporated as a change to PURPA.
While the percentages vary by year in the House and Senate proposals, ultimately they both end up at least equal to 20% of all generation to be produced by renewables (see table).
| Year | House (HR 890) % | Senate (Draft) % |
| 2011 | 4.0 | |
| 2012 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| 2013 | 6.0 | 8.0 |
| 2014 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| 2015 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| 2016 | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| 2017 | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| 2018 | 14.0 | 12.0 |
| 2019 | 14.0 | 16.0 |
| 2020 | 17.5 | 16.0 |
| 2021 | 17.5 | 20.0 |
| 2022 | 21.0 | 20.0 |
| 2023 | 21.0 | 20.0 |
| 2024 | 23.0 | 20.0 |
| 2025 | 25.0 | 20.0 |
Using 2008 generation statistics from DOE’s EIA , approximately 2.7% of all generation is provided by renewables. While a number of states are already ahead of the percentages proposed in the bills, all states will need to add significant generation to meet the proposed (and mandated) targets in the latter years.
Currently, 28 states have a mandated RPS with another 5 having a renewables target. All have different provisions, timing, sources, etc.
For simplicity, I have focused on the Senate Draft Bill regarding the analysis below. I have also assumed 1% growth in electricity consumption for all future years (DOE assumption).
Draft Senate RPS
Of the ~113 Twh of renewable generation produced in 2008, California provided 25.5 Twh and Texas 13.7 Twh. Together they accounted for almost 50% of all US renewable generation. Given that Texas consumes almost twice as much power as California, there will need to be significant increases in Texas based renewable generation to meet future compliance levels. On a regional basis, the South Atlantic (increase of 169 Twh) and East North Central (increase of 143 Twh) states will contribute the greatest total renewable generation to meet the 2021 Senate generation levels (40% of the total increase of 824 Twh). The map is available in a larger and dynamic format.
To put this into perspective, Texas produced approximately 400 Twh in 2008. As a country, the US will need to add over 820 Twh of new renewable generation by 2021 to meet the Draft Senate requirements. This is equivalent to twice what Texas generated in 2008.
Note: I will be making further comparisons in upcoming posts regarding qualifying technologies, RECs and the differences between the competing bills.
[...] The Climate Bill will continue to see challenges from many angles and not just from Southern Republicans. Politico reports that real opposition is developing from Democrats in the south, Rust Belt and coal states. South Carolina representative, Jim Clyburn, wants to include nuclear within the definition of renewable. Another previous post on the magnitude of renewable energy projects required among the above regions…. [...]